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nydus/A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesPublic

Pierre-Simon Laplace presents the principles and general results of probability theory without the use of complex mathematical analysis. He explores the application of these concepts to human knowledge and daily life, arguing that probability is essential to understanding both natural events and moral reasoning.

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CHAPTER XIII. CONCERNING THE PROBABILITY OF THE…

motives that are entirely strange, ought oftentimes to concur in producing it, when it is imposed upon the jury as a necessary condition of its judgment. Then its decisions depending upon the temperament, the character, the habits of the jurors, and the circumstances in which they are placed, they are sometimes contrary to the decisions which the majority of the jury would have made if they had listened only to the proofs; this seems to me to be a great fault of this manner of judging.

The probability of the decision is too feeble in our juries, and I think that in order to give a sufficient guarantee to innocence, one ought to demand at least a plurality of nine votes in twelve.

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