CHAPTER IX. THE APPLICATION OF THE CALCULUS OF PROBABILITIES TO NATURAL PHILOSOPHY.
The phenomena of nature are most often enveloped by so many strange circumstances, and so great a number of disturbing causes mix their influence, that it is very difficult to recognize them. We may arrive at them only by multiplying the observations or the experiences, so that the strange effects finally destroy reciprocally each other, the mean results putting in evidence those phenomena and their divers elements. The more numerous the number of observations and the less they vary among themselves the more their results approach the truth. We fulfil this last condition by the choice of the methods of observations, by the precision of the instruments, and by the care which we take to observe closely; then we determine by the theory of probabilities the most advantageous mean results or those which give the least value of the error. But that is not sufficient; it is further necessary to appreciate the probability that the errors of these results are comprised in the given limits; and without this we have only an imperfect knowledge of the degree
of exactitude obtained. Formulæ suitable to these matters are then true improvements of the method of sciences, and it is indeed important to add them to this method. The analysis which they require is the most delicate and the most difficult of the theory of probabilities; it is one of the principal objects of the work which I have published upon this theory, and in which I have arrived at formulæ of this kind which have the remarkable advantage of being independent of the law of the probability of errors and of including only the quantities given by the observations themselves and their expressions.
Each observation has for an analytic expression a function of the elements which we wish to determine; and if these elements are nearly known, this function becomes a linear function of their corrections. In equating it to the observation itself there is formed an equation of condition. If we have a great number of similar equations, we combine them in such a manner as to obtain as many final equations as there are elements whose corrections we determine then by resolving these equations. But what is the most advantageous manner of combining equations of condition in order to obtain final equations? What is the law of the probabilities of errors of which the elements are still susceptible that we draw from them? This is made clear to us by the theory of probabilities. The formation of a final equation by means of the equation of condition amounts to multiplying each one of these by an indeterminate factor and by uniting the products; it is necessary to choose the system of factors which gives the smallest opportunity for error. But it is apparent that if we multiply the possible errors of an element by their respective probabilities, the most advantageous system will be that in which the sum of these products all, taken, positively is a minimum; for a positive or a negative error ought to be considered as a loss. Forming, then, this sum of products, the condition of the minimum will determine the system of factors which it is expedient to adopt, or the most advantageous system. We find thus that this system is that of the coefficients of the elements in each equation of condition; so that we form a first final equation by multiplying respectively each equation of condition by its coefficient of the first element and by uniting all these equations thus multiplied. We form a second final equation by employing