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nydus/A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesPublic

Pierre-Simon Laplace presents the principles and general results of probability theory without the use of complex mathematical analysis. He explores the application of these concepts to human knowledge and daily life, arguing that probability is essential to understanding both natural events and moral reasoning.

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CHAPTER IX. THE APPLICATION OF THE CALCULUS OF…

In this hypothesis the comets are strangers to the planetary system. In attaching their formation to that of the nebulæ they may be regarded as small nebulæ at the nuclei, wandering from systems to solar systems, and formed by the condensation of the nebulous matter spread out in such great profusion in the universe. The comets would be thus, in relation to our system, as the aerolites are relatively to the Earth, to which they would appear strangers. When these stars become visible to us they offer so perfect resemblance to the nebulæ that they are often confounded with them; and it is only by their movement, or by the knowledge of all the nebulæ confined to that part of the heavens where they appear, that we succeed in distinguishing them. This supposition explains in a happy manner the great extension which the heads and tails of comets

take in the measure that they approach the sun, and the extreme rarity of these tails which, in spite of their immense depth, do not weaken at all appreciably the light of the stars which we look across.

When the little nebulæ come into that part of space where the attraction of the sun is predominant, and which we shall call the sphere of activity of this star, it forces them to describe elliptic or hyperbolic orbits. But their speed being equally possible in all directions they ought to move indifferently in all the senses and under all inclinations of the elliptic, which is conformable to that which has been observed.

The great eccentricity of the cometary orbits results again from the preceding hypothesis. Indeed if these orbits are elliptical they are very elongated, since their great axes are at least equal to the radius of the sphere of activity of the sun. But these orbits may be hyperbolic; and if the axes of these hyperbolæ are not very large in proportion to the mean distance from the sun to the earth, the movement of the comets which describe them will appear sensibly hyperbolic. However, of the hundred comets of which we already have the elements, not one has appeared certainly to move in an hyperbola; it is necessary, then, that the chances which give an appreciable hyperbola should be extremely rare in proportion to the contrary chances.

The comets are so small that, in order to become visible, their perihelion distance ought to be inconsiderable. Up to the present this distance has surpassed only twice the diameter of the terrestrial orbit, and most often it has been below the radius of this orbit. It is conceived that, in order to approach so near the

sun, their speed at the moment of their entrance into its sphere of activity ought to have a magnitude and a direction confined within narrow limits. In determining by the analysis of probabilities the ratio of the chances which, in these limits, give an appreciable hyperbola, to the chances which give an orbit which may be confounded with a parabola, I have found that it is a bet of at least 6000 against one that a nebula which penetrates into the activity of the sun in such a manner as to be observed will describe either a very elongated ellipse or an hyperbola. By the magnitude of its axis, the latter will be appreciably confounded with a parabola in the part which is observed; it is then not surprising that, up to this time, hyperbolic movements have not been recognized.

The attraction of the planets, and, perhaps further, the resistance of the ethereal centres, ought to have changed many cometary orbits in the ellipses whose great axis is less than the radius of the sphere of activity of the sun, which augments the chances of the elliptical orbits. We may believe that this change has taken place with the comet of 1759, and with the comet whose duration is only twelve hundred days, and which will reappear without ceasing in this short interval, unless the evaporation which it meets at each of its returns to the perihelion ends by rendering it invisible.

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