the matter, of course they would, in the case supposed, all prefer to insure as consumptives. But their doing this would disturb each set of statistics. The English mortality in Madeira would instantly become heavier, so far as the Insurance company was concerned, by the loss of all their best lives; whilst the consumptive statistics (unless all the English consumptives had already been taken for insurance) would be in the same way deteriorated.[5] A slight readjustment therefore of each scale of insurance would then be needed; this is the disturbance mentioned just above. It must be clearly understood, however, that it is not our original statistics which have proved to be inconsistent, but simply that there were practical obstacles to carrying out a system of insurance upon them.
§ 28. Examples subject to the difficulty now under consideration will doubtless seem perplexing to the student unacquainted with the subject. They are difficult to reconcile with any other view of the science than that insisted on throughout this Essay, viz.[** TN: space] that we are only concerned with averages. It will perhaps be urged that there are two different values of the man's life in these cases, and that they cannot both be true. Why not? The ‘value’ of his life is simply the number of years to which men in his circumstances do, on the average, attain; we have the man set before us under two different circumstances; what wonder, therefore, that these should offer different averages? In such an objection it is forgotten that we have had to substitute for the unattainable result about the individual, the really attainable result about a set of men as much like him as possible. The difficulty and apparent contradiction only arise when people will try to find some justification for their belief in the individual case. What can we possibly conclude,
it may be asked, about this particular man John Smith's prospects when we are thus offered two different values for his life? Nothing whatever, it must be replied; nor could we in reality draw a conclusion, be it remembered, in the former case, when we were practically confined to one set of statistics. There also we had what we called the ‘value’ of his life, and since we only knew of one such value, we came to regard it as in some sense appropriate to him as an individual. Here, on the other hand, we have two values, belonging to different series, and as these values are really different it may be complained that they are discordant, but such a complaint can only be made when we do what we have no right to do, viz.[** TN: space] assign a value to the individual which shall admit of individual justification.
§ 29. Is it then perfectly arbitrary what series or class of instances we select by which to judge? By no means; it has been stated repeatedly that in choosing a series, we must seek for one the members of which shall resemble our individual in as many of his attributes as possible, subject only to the restriction that it must be a sufficiently extensive series. What is meant is, that in the above case, where we have two series, we cannot fairly call them contradictory; the only valid charge is one of incompleteness or insufficiency for their purpose, a charge which applies in exactly the same sense, be it remembered, to all statistics which comprise genera unnecessarily wider than the species with which we are concerned. The only difference between the two different classes of cases is, that in the one instance we are on a path which we know will lead at the last, through many errors, towards the truth (in the sense in which truth can be attained here), and we took it for want of a better. In the other instance we have two such paths, perfectly different paths, either of which however will lead us towards the truth
as before. Contradiction can only seem to arise when it is attempted to justify each separate step on our paths, as well as their ultimate tendency.