one characteristic of our random distribution; i.e.[ TN: space] no portion of this tangent, however small or however remote, but will find itself in the position ultimately of any small portion of the pavement in our supposed continual rainfall. That is, any such elementary patch will become more and more closely dotted over with the points of intersection. But the other essential characteristic, viz.[ TN: space] that of ultimately uniform distribution, will be missing. There will be a special form of distribution,—what in fact will have to be discussed in a future chapter under the designation of a ‘law of error’,—by virtue of which the concentration will tend to be greatest at a certain point (that of contact with the circle), and will thin out from here in each direction according to an easily calculated formula. The existence of such a state of things as this is quite opposed to the conception of true randomness.
§ 10. III. Apart from definitions and what comes of them, perhaps the most important question connected with the conception of Randomness is this: How in any given case are we to determine whether an observed arrangement is to be considered a random one or not? This question will have to be more fully discussed in a future chapter, but we are already in a position to see our way through some of the difficulties involved in it.
(1) If the events or objects under consideration are supposed to be continued indefinitely, or if we know enough about the mode in which they are brought about to detect their ultimate tendency,—or even, short of this, if they are numerous enough to be beyond practical counting,—there is no great difficulty. We are simply confronted with a question of fact, to be settled like other questions of fact. In the case of the rain-drops, watch two equal squares of pavement or other surfaces, and note whether they come to be more and more densely uniformly and evenly spotted over: if they do, then the arrangement is what we call a random one. If I want to know whether a tobacco-pipe really breaks at random, and would therefore serve as an illustration of the problem proposed some pages back, I have only to drop enough of them and