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nydus/The Logic of Chance, 3rd EditionPublic
Page 261 of 309
Table of Contents

ON THE CREDIBILITY OF EXTRAORDINARY STORIES.

there is nothing which need necessarily make us side with either of the two principal schools which are divided as to the nature of these laws of causation. The definition will serve equally well whether we understand by law nothing more than uniformity of antecedent and consequent, or whether we assert that there is some deeper and more mysterious tie between the events than mere sequence. The use of the term ‘causation’ in this minimum of signification is common to both schools, though the one might consider it inadequate; we may speak, therefore, of ‘suspensions of causation’ without committing ourselves to either.

§ 22. It should be observed that the aspect of the question suggested by this definition is one from which we can hardly escape. Attempts indeed have been sometimes made to avoid the necessity of any assumption as to the universal prevalence of law and order in nature, by defining a miracle from a different point of view. A miracle may be called, for instance, ‘an immediate exertion of creative power,’ ‘a sign of a revelation,’ or, still more vaguely, an ‘extraordinary event.’ But nothing would be gained by adopting any such definitions as these. However they might satisfy the theologian, the student of physical science would not rest content with them for a moment. He would at once assert his own belief, and that of other scientific men, in the existence of universal law, and enquire what was the connection of the definition with this doctrine. An answer would imperatively be demanded to the question, Does the miracle, as you have described it, imply an infraction of one of these laws, or does it not? And an answer must be given, unless indeed we reject his assumption by denying our belief in the existence of this universal law, in which case of course we put ourselves out of the pale of argument with him. The necessity of having to recognize this fact is growing upon men day by day, with the increased study of physical science. And since this aspect of the question has to be met some time or other, it is as well to place it in the front. The difficulty, in its scientific form, is of course a modern one, for the doctrine

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