Looking forward to the future, it is clear that there will be considerable shifts in the centers of principal production of petroleum in the directions indicated by the reserve figures. In particular, conspicuous development of production may be expected in the immediate future in the countries bordering the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. In the eastern hemisphere production is rapidly increasing in Persia and Mesopotamia; and Russia, with the stabilization of political conditions, may become ultimately the world's leading oil producer. At the now indicated rate of production, world reserves now estimated would be exhausted in eighty-six years and the peak of production would be passed earlier. With continuing acceleration of production, total reserves would be exhausted in considerably less time,—providing physical conditions would allow the oil to be pumped from the ground at the necessary speed, which they probably will not. These figures taken at face value are alarming; but the earth offers such huge possibilities for further discoveries that the life of oil reserves above indicated is likely to be considerably extended. At many times in the history of the mineral industry the end has apparently been in sight for certain products; but with the increased demand for these products has come increased activity in exploration, with the result that as yet no definite end has been approached for any one of them. The more immediate problems of the petroleum industry seem to the writer to be of rather different nature: first, whether the discovery and winning of the oil can be made to keep pace with the enormous acceleration of demand; and second, the adjustment of political and financial control of oil resources, the possession of which is becoming so increasingly vital to national prosperity.
In regard to the first question, it is a much more difficult problem today to locate and develop a supply of oil to replace the annual world production (recently half a billion barrels), than it was twenty years ago, when it was necessary for this purpose to find only one-fifth this amount; and if the demand is unchecked, it will be still more difficult to replace the three-quarters of a billion barrels of oil which will doubtless be required in a very few years. Regardless of the amount of oil actually in the ground, it is entirely possible that physical limitations on its rate of discovery and recovery will prevent its being made available as fast as necessary to meet the increasing demand. This fact is likely to make itself felt through increase of price. Other natural results should be the development of substitutes, such as alcohol or benzol for gasoline; the larger recovery of oil from oil shales; and the general speeding up of conservational measures of various kinds. These are all palliatives and not essential remedies. To make enough alcohol to substitute for the gasoline now coming