the man's belief had some ‘value’ (if they could only find out what it is), say nine-tenths; by which they would mean that in nine cases out of ten in which he entertained a belief of that particular value he proved to be right. So with his belief and doubt on the other side of the question. Putting the two together, there is but one course which, as a prudent man and a good father, he can possibly follow. It may be so, but when (as here) the identification of an event in a series depends on purely subjective conditions, as in this case upon the degree of vividness of his conviction, of which no one else can judge, no test is possible, and therefore no proof can be found.
§ 29. So much then for the attempts, so frequently made, to found the science on a subjective basis; they can lead, as it has here been endeavoured to show, to no satisfactory result. Still our belief is so inseparably connected with our action, that something of a defence can be made for the attempts described above; but when it is attempted, as is
often the case, to import other sentiments besides pure belief, and to find a justification for them also in the results of our science, the confusion becomes far worse. The following extract from Archbishop Thomson's Laws of Thought (§ 122, Ed. II.)[** TN: space] will show what kind of applications of the science are contemplated here: “In applying the doctrine of chances to that subject in connexion with which it was invented—games of chance,—the principles of what has been happily termed ‘moral arithmetic’ must not be forgotten. Not only would it be difficult for a gamester to find an antagonist on terms, as to fortune and needs, precisely equal, but also it is impossible that with such an equality the advantage of a considerable gain should balance the harm of a serious loss. ‘If two men,’ says Buffon, ‘were to determine to play for their whole property, what would be the effect of this agreement? The one would only double his fortune, and the other reduce his to naught. What proportion is there between the loss and the gain? The same that there is between all and nothing. The gain of the one is but a moderate sum,—the loss of the other is numerically infinite, and morally so great that the labour of his whole life may not perhaps suffice to restore his property.’ ”