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nydus/The Logic of Chance, 3rd EditionPublic

This work examines the physical foundations of probability by analyzing the formation and behavior of statistical series. It explores the nature of laws of error, the processes of causation, and the empirical methods required to establish and prove probabilistic data.

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Table of Contents

THE APPLICATION OF PROBABILITY TO TESTIMONY.

influence of sympathy in forming their opinions. This influence, under the various names of political bias, class prejudice, local feeling, and so on, always exists to a sufficient degree to induce a cautious person to make many of those individual corrections which we saw to be necessary when we were estimating the trustworthiness, in any given case, of a single witness; that is, they are sufficient to destroy much, if not all, of the confidence with which we resort to statistics and averages in forming our judgment. Since then this Essay is mainly devoted to explaining and establishing the general principles of the science of Probability, we may very fairly be excused from any further treatment of this subject, beyond the brief discussions which are given in the next chapter.

1 It may be remarked also that there is another reason which tends to dissuade us from appealing to principles of Probability in the majority of the cases where testimony has to be estimated. It often, perhaps usually happens, that we are not absolutely forced to come to a decision; at least so far as the acquitting of an accused person may be considered as avoiding a decision. It may be of much greater importance to us to attain not merely truth on the average, but truth in each individual instance, so that we had rather not form an opinion at all than form one of which we can only say in its justification that it will tend to lead us right in the long run.

CHAPTER XVII.

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