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nydus/The Logic of Chance, 3rd EditionPublic

This work examines the physical foundations of probability by analyzing the formation and behavior of statistical series. It explores the nature of laws of error, the processes of causation, and the empirical methods required to establish and prove probabilistic data.

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Table of Contents

THE CONCEPTION RANDOMNESS AND ITS SCIENTIFIC TREATMENT.

Similar remarks may be made about most other incommensurable quantities, such as irreducible roots. Conceive two straight lines at right angles, and that we lay off a certain number of inches along each of these from the point of intersection; say two and five inches, and join the extremities of these so as to form the diagonal of a right-angled triangle. If we proceed to measure this diagonal in terms of either of the other lines we are to all intents and purposes extracting a square root. We should expect, rather than otherwise, to find here, as in the case of π, that incommensurability and resultant randomness of order in the digits was the rule, and commensurability was the exception. Now and then, as when the two sides were three and four, we should find the diagonal commensurable with them; but these would be the occasional exceptions, or rather they would be the comparatively finite exceptions amidst the indefinitely numerous cases which furnished the rule.

§ 15. The best way perhaps of illustrating the truly random character of such a row of figures is by appealing to graphical aid. It is not easy here, any more than in ordinary statistics, to grasp the import of mere figures; whereas the arrangement of groups of points or lines is much more readily seized. The eye is very quick in detecting any symptoms of regularity in the arrangement, or any tendency to denser aggregation in one direction than in another. How then are we to dispose our figures so as to force them to display their true character? I should suggest that we set about drawing a line at random; and, since we cannot

trust our own unaided efforts to do this, that we rely upon the help of such a table of figures to do it for us, and then examine with what sort of efficiency they can perform the task. The problem of drawing straight lines at random, under various limitations of direction or intersection, is familiar enough, but I do not know that any one has suggested the drawing of a line whose shape as well as position shall be of a purely random character. For simplicity we suppose the line to be confined to a plane.

The definition of such a line does not seem to involve any particular difficulty. Phrased in accordance with the ordinary language we should describe it as the path (i.e.[** TN: space] any path) traced out by a point which at every moment is as likely to move in any one direction as in any other. That we could not ourselves draw such a line, and that we could not get it traced by any physical agency, is certain. The mere inertia of any moving body will always give it a tendency, however slight, to go on in a straight line at each moment, instead of being instantly responsive to instantaneously varying dictates as to its direction of motion. Nor can we conceive or picture such a line in its ultimate or ideal condition. But it is easy to give a graphical approximation to it, and it is easy also to show how this approximation may be carried on as far as we please towards the ideal in question.

We may proceed as follows. Take a sheet of the ordinary ruled paper prepared for the graphical exposition of curves. Select as our starting point the intersection of two of these lines, and consider the eight ‘points of the compass’ indicated by these lines and the bisections of the contained right angles.[5] For suggesting the random selection amongst

these directions let them be numbered from 0 to 7, and let us say that a line measured due ‘north’ shall be designated by the figure 0, ‘north-east’ by 1, and so on. The selection amongst these numbers, and therefore directions, at every corner, might be handed over to a die with eight faces; but for the purpose of the illustration in view we select the digits 0 to 7 as they present themselves in the calculated value of π. The sort of path along which we should travel by a series of such steps thus taken at random may be readily conceived; it is given at the end of this chapter.

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