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nydus/The Logic of Chance, 3rd EditionPublic

This work examines the physical foundations of probability by analyzing the formation and behavior of statistical series. It explores the nature of laws of error, the processes of causation, and the empirical methods required to establish and prove probabilistic data.

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Table of Contents

INSURANCE AND GAMBLING.

games where skill counts for something), must be regarded as a man following a profession, though a profession for the most part of a risky and exciting kind, to say nothing of its ignoble and often dishonest character. If, on the other hand, his skill is below the average, or the game is one in which skill does not tell and the odds are slightly in favour of his antagonist, as in the gaming tables, one light in which he can be regarded is that of a man who is following a favourite amusement; if this amusement involves a constant annual outlay on his part, that is nothing more than what has to be said of most other amusements.

§ 7. We cannot, of course, give such a rational explanation as the above in every case. There are plenty of novices, and plenty of fanatics, who go on steadily losing in the full conviction that they will eventually come out winners. But it is hard to believe that such ignorance, or such intellectual twist, can really be so widely prevalent as would be requisite to constitute them the rule rather than the exception. There must surely be some very general impulse which is gratified by such resources, and it is not easy to see what else this can be than a love of that variety and consequent excitement which can only be found in perfection where exact prevision is impossible.

It is of course very difficult to make any generalization here as to the comparative prevalence of various motives amongst mankind; but when one considers what is the difference which most quiet ordinary whist players feel between a game for ‘love’ and one in which there is a small stake, one cannot but assign a high value to the

influence of a wish to emphasize the excitement of loss and gain.

I would not for a moment underrate the practical dangers which are found to attend the practice of gambling. It is remarked that the gambler, if he continues to play for a long time, is under an almost irresistible impulse to increase his stakes, and so re-introduce the element of uncertainty. It is in fact this tendency to be thus led on, which makes the principal danger and mischief of the practice. Risk and uncertainty are still such normal characteristics of even civilized life, that the mere extension of such tendencies into new fields does not in itself offer any very alarming prospect. It is only to be deprecated in so far as there is a danger, which experience shows to be no trifling one, that the fascination found in the pursuit should lead men into following it up into excessive lengths.[3]

§ 8. The above general treatment of Gambling and Insurance seems to me the only rational and sound principle of division;—namely, that on which the different practices which, under various names, are known as gambling or insurance, are arranged in accordance with the spirit of which they are the outcome, and therefore of the results which they are designed to secure. If we were to attempt

to judge and arrange them according to the names which they currently bear, we should find ourselves led to no kind of systematic division whatever; the fact being that since they all alike involve, as their essential characteristic, payments and receipts, one or both of which are necessarily uncertain in their date or amount, the names may often be interchanged.

For instance, a lottery and an ordinary insurance society against accident, if we merely look to the processes performed in them, are to all intents and purposes identical. In each alike there is a small payment which is certain in amount, and a great receipt which is uncertain in amount. A great many persons pay the small premium, whereas a few only of their number obtain a prize, the rest getting no return whatever for their outlay. In each case alike, also, the aggregate receipts and losses are intended to balance each other, after

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