or coin-collectors, or persons who might have been supposed to have indulged in tossing for sport or for gambling purposes? Were the coins new or old ones?[** TN: space] a distinction of this kind would be very pertinent when we were considering the existence of any motive for arranging them the same way uppermost. And so on; we feel that our statistics are at the mercy of any momentary fragment of information.
§ 14. But there is another consideration besides this. Not only should we be thus influenced by what may be called external circumstances of a general kind, such as the character and position of the agents, we should also be influenced by what we supposed to be the conventional[3] estimate with which this or that particular chance arrangement was then regarded. Thus from time to time as new games of cards become popular new combinations acquire significance; and therefore when the question of design takes the form of possible cheating a knowledge of the current estimate of such combinations becomes exceedingly important.
§ 15. The full significance of these difficulties will best be apprehended by the discussion of a case which is not fictitious or invented for the purpose, but which has actually given rise to serious dispute. Some years ago Prof.[** TN: space] Piazzi Smyth published a work[4] upon the great pyramid of Ghizeh, the general object of which was to show that that building contained, in its magnitude, proportions and contents, a number of almost imperishable natural standards of length, volume, &c. Amongst other things it was determined that
the value of π was accurately (the degree of accuracy is not, I think, assigned) indicated by the ratio of the sides to the height. The contention was that this result could not be accidental but must have been designed.
As regards the estimation of the value of the chance hypothesis the calculation is not quite so clear as in the case of dice or cards. We cannot indeed suppose that, for a given length of base, any height can be equally possible. We must limit ourselves to a certain range here; for if too high the building would be insecure, and if too low it would be ridiculous. Again, we must decide to how close an approximation the measurements are made. If they are guaranteed to the hundredth