be ignorant of the details we have no warrant for assuming as a consequence that the details are uncaused. But this supposed irreconcileability is sometimes urged in a much more aggressive spirit in reference to social enquiries. Here the attempt is often made to prove causation in the details, from the known and admitted regularity in the averages. A considerable amount of controversy was excited some years ago upon this topic, in great part originated by the vigorous and outspoken support of the necessitarian side by Buckle in his History of Civilization.
It should be remarked that in these cases the attempt is sometimes made as it were to startle the reader into acquiescence by the singularity of the examples chosen. Instances are selected which, though they possess no greater logical value, are, if one may so express it, emotionally more effective. Every reader of Buckle's History, for instance, will remember the stress which he laid upon the observed fact, that the number of suicides in London remains about the same, year by year; and he may remember also the sort of panic with which the promulgation of this fact was accompanied in many quarters. So too the way in which Laplace notices that the number of undirected letters annually sent to the Post Office remains about the same, and the comments of Dugald Stewart upon this particular uniformity, seem to imply that they regarded
this instance as more remarkable than many analogous ones taken from other quarters.
That there is a certain foundation of truth in the reasonings in support of which the above examples are advanced, cannot be denied, but their authors appear to me very much to overrate the sort of opposition that exists between the theory of Chances and the doctrine of Causation. As regards first that wider conception of order or regularity which we have termed uniformity, anything which might be called objective chance would certainly be at variance with this in one respect. In Probability ultimate regularity is always postulated; in tossing a die, if not merely the individual throws were uncertain in their results, but even the average also, owing to the nature of the die, or the number of the marks upon it, being arbitrarily interfered with, of course no kind of science would attempt to take any account of it.
§ 3. So much must undoubtedly be granted; but must the same admission be made as regards the succession of the individual events? Can causation, in the sense of invariable succession (for we are here shifting on to this narrower ground), be denied, not indeed without suspicion of scientific heterodoxy, but at any rate without throwing uncertainty upon the foundations of Probability? De Morgan, as we have seen, strongly maintains that this cannot be so. I find myself unable to agree with him here, but this disagreement springs not so much from differences of detail, as from those of the point of view in which we regard the science. He always appears to incline to the opinion that the individual judgment in probability is to admit of justification; that when we say, for instance, that the odds in favour of some event are three to two, that we can explain and justify our statement without any necessary reference to a series or class of such events. It is not easy to see how this can be
done in any case, but the obstacles would doubtless be greater even than they are, if knowledge of the individual event were not merely unattained, but, owing to the absence of any causal connection, essentially unattainable. On the theory adopted in this work we simply postulate ignorance of the details, but it is not regarded as of any importance on what sort of grounds this ignorance is based. It may be that knowledge is out of the question from the nature of the case, the causative link, so to say, being missing. It may be that such links are known to exist, but that either we cannot ascertain them, or should find it troublesome to do so. It is the fact of this ignorance that makes us appeal to the theory of Probability, the grounds of it are of no importance.