considering them as rules of probability. Even then they would be rules practically of a very different kind, contingent instead of necessary (if one may use these terms without committing oneself to any philosophical system), but this objection might perhaps be overruled by the greater simplicity secured by classing them together. This view is, with various modifications, generally adopted by writers on Probability, or at least, as I understand the matter, implied by their methods of definition and treatment. Or, on the other hand, must these causes be regarded as a vast system, one might almost say a chaos, of perfectly distinct agencies; which may indeed be classified and arranged to some extent, but from which we can never hope to obtain any rules of perfect generality which shall not be subject to constant exception? If so, but one course is left; to exclude them all alike from Probability. In other words, we must assume the general proposition, viz.[ TN: space] that which has been described throughout as our starting-point, to be given to us; it may be obtained by any of the numerous rules furnished by Induction, or it may be inferred deductively, or given by our own observation; its value may be diminished by its depending upon the testimony of witnesses, or its being recalled by our own memory. Its real value may be influenced by these causes or any combinations of them; but all these are preliminary questions with which we have nothing directly to do. We assume our statistical proposition to be true, neglecting the diminution of its value by the process of attainment; we take it up first at this point and then apply our rules to it. We receive it in fact, if one may use the expression, ready-made, and ask no questions about the process or completeness of
§ 5. It is not to be supposed, of course, that any writers have seriously attempted to reduce to one system of calculation all the causes mentioned above, and to embrace in one formula the diminution of certainty to which the inclusion of them subjects us. But on the other hand, they have been unwilling to restrain themselves from all appeal to them. From an early period in the study of the science attempts have been made to proceed, by the Calculus of Probability, from the observed cases to adjacent and similar cases. In practice, as has been already said, it is not possible to avoid some extension of this kind. But it should be observed, that in these instances the divergence from the strict ground of experience is not in reality recognized, at least not as a part of our logical procedure. We have, it is true, wandered somewhat beyond it, and so obtained a wider proposition than our data strictly necessitated, and therefore one of less certainty. Still we assume the conclusion given by induction to be equally certain with the data, or rather omit all notice of the divergence from consideration. It is assumed that the unexamined instances will resemble the examined, an assumption for which abundant warrant may exist; the theory of the calculation rests upon the supposition that there will be no difference between them, and the practical error is insignificant simply because this difference is small.
§ 6. But the rule we are now about to discuss, and which may be called the Rule of Succession, is of a very different kind. It not only recognizes the fact that we are
leaving the ground of past experience, but takes the consequences of this divergence as the express subject of its calculation. It professes to give a general rule for the measure of expectation that we should have of the reappearance of a phenomenon that has been already observed any number of times. This rule is generally stated somewhat as follows: “To find the chance of the recurrence of an event already observed, divide the number of times the event has been observed, increased by one, by the same number increased by two.”
§ 7. It will be instructive to point out the origin of this rule; if only to remind the reader of the necessity of keeping mathematical formulæ to their proper province, and to show what astonishing conclusions are apt