§ 18. This chapter was intended to be devoted to a consideration, not of the processes by which nature produces the series with which we are concerned, but of the theoretic basis of the methods by which we can determine the existence
of such series. But it is not possible to keep the two enquiries apart, for here, at any rate, the old maxim prevails that to know a thing we must know its causes. Recur for a minute to the considerations of the last chapter. We there saw that there was a large class of events, the conditions of production of which could be said to consist of (1) a comparatively few nearly unchangeable elements, and (2) a vast number of independent and very changeable elements. At least if there were any other elements besides these, we are assumed either to make special allowance for them, or to omit them from our enquiry. Now in certain cases, such as games of chance, the unchangeable elements may without practical error be regarded as really unchangeable throughout any range of time and space. Hence, as a result, the deductive method of treatment becomes in their case at once the most simple, natural, and conclusive; but, as a further consequence, the statistics of the events, if we choose to appeal to them, may be collected ad libitum with better and better approximation to truth. On the other hand, in all social applications of Probability, the unchangeable causes can only be regarded as really unchangeable under many qualifications. We know little or nothing of them directly; they are often in reality numerous, indeterminate, and fluctuating; and it is only under the guarantee of stringent restrictions of time and place, that we can with any safety attribute to them sufficient fixity to justify our theory. Hence, as a result, the deductive method, under whatever name it may go, becomes totally inapplicable both in theory and practice; and, as a further consequence, the appeal to statistics has to be made with the caution in mind that we shall do mischief rather than good if we go on collecting too many of them.
§ 19. The results of the last two chapters may be summed up as follows:—We have extended the conception
of a series obtained in the first chapter; for we have found that these series are mostly presented to us in groups. These groups are found upon examination to be formed upon approximately the same type throughout a very wide and varied range of experience; the causes of this agreement we discussed and explained in some detail. When, however, we extend our examination by supposing the series to run to a very great length, we find that they may be divided into two classes separated by important distinctions. In one of these classes (that containing the results of games of chance) the conditions of production, and consequently the laws of statistical occurrence, may be practically regarded as absolutely fixed; and the extent of the divergences from the mean seem to know no finite limit. In the other class, on the contrary (containing the bulk of ordinary statistical enquiries), the conditions of production vary with more or less rapidity, and so in consequence do the results. Moreover it is often impossible that variations from the mean should exceed a certain amount. The former we may term ideal series. It is they alone which show the requisite characteristics with any close approach to accuracy, and to make the theory of the subject tenable, we have really to substitute one of this kind for one of the less perfect ones of the other class, when these latter are under treatment. The former class have, however, been too exclusively considered by writers on the subject; and conceptions appropriate only to them, and not always even to them, have been imported into the other class. It is in this way that a general tendency to an excessive deductive or à priori treatment of the science has been encouraged.