us and his death within the stated period. Regarded by themselves there is nothing in common between them, and therefore no link by which they may be connected or disconnected with each other. The various classes above referred to are a set of such middle terms, and the propositions belonging to them are a corresponding set of major premises. By the help of any one of them we are enabled, under suitable circumstances, to connect together the subject and predicate of the conclusion, that is, to infer whether the man will or will not live twenty years.
§ 15. Now in the performance of such a logical process there are two considerations to which the reader's attention must for a moment be directed. They are simple enough in this case, but will need careful explanation in the corresponding case in Probability. In the first place, it is clear that whenever we can make any inference at all, we can do so with absolute certainty. Logic, within its own domain, knows nothing of hesitation or doubt. If the middle term is appropriate it serves to connect the extremes in such a way as to preclude all uncertainty about the conclusion; if it is not, there is so far an end of the matter: no conclusion can be drawn, and we are therefore left where we were. Assuming our premises to be correct, we either know our conclusion for certain, or we know nothing whatever about it. In the second place, it should be noticed that none of the possible alternatives in the shape of such major premises as those given above can ever contradict any of the others, or be at all inconsistent with them. Regarded as isolated propositions, there is of course nothing to secure such harmony; they have very different predicates, and may seem quite out of each other's reach for either support or opposition. But by means of the other premise they are in each case brought into relation with one another, and the general
interests of truth and consistency prevent them therefore from contradicting one another. As isolated propositions it might have been the case that all men live to fifty, and that no Indian residents do so, but having recognised that some men are residents in India, we see at once that these premises are inconsistent, and therefore that one or other of them must be rejected. In all applied logic this necessity of avoiding self-contradiction is so obvious and imperious that no one would think it necessary to lay down the formal postulate that all such possible major premises are to be mutually consistent. To suppose that this postulate is not complied with, would be in effect to make two or more contradictory assumptions about matters of fact.
§ 16. But now observe the difference when we attempt to take the corresponding step in Probability. For ordinary propositions, universal or particular, substitute statistical propositions of what we have been in the habit of calling the ‘proportional’ kind. In other words, instead of asking whether the man will live for twenty years, let us ask whether he will live for one year? We shall be unable to find any universal propositions which will cover the case, but we may without difficulty obtain an abundance of appropriate proportional ones. They will be of the following description:—Of men aged 30, 98 in 100 live another year; of residents in India a smaller proportion survive, let us for example say 90 in 100; of men suffering from cancer a smaller proportion still, let us say 20 in 100.
Now in both of the respects to which attention has just been drawn, propositions of this kind offer a marked contrast with those last considered. In the first place, they do not, like ordinary propositions, either assert unequivocally yes or no, or else refuse to open their lips; but they give instead a sort of qualified or hesitating answer concerning the individuals included in them. This is of course nothing more than the familiar characteristic of what may be called ‘probability propositions.’ But it leads up to, and indeed renders possible, the second and more