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nydus/The Logic of Chance, 3rd EditionPublic
Page 212 of 310
Table of Contents

ON THE CONCEPTION AND TREATMENT OF MODALITY.

26 The question will be more fully discussed in a future chapter, but a few words may be inserted here by way of indication. Reduce the case to the simplest possible elements by supposing only two judges or courts, of the same average correctness of decision. Let this be indicated by x. Then the chance of their agreeing is x2 + (1 − x)2, for they agree if both are right or both wrong. If the statistical frequency of this agreement is known, that is, the frequency with which the first judgment is confirmed by the second, we have the means of determining x.

27 Taylor on Evidence: the latter part of the extract does not seem very clear.

CHAPTER XIV.

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