But the mere suggestion is absurd. A man must have an object in thinking, he must think according to a rule or formula; but unless he takes some natural series as a copy, he will never be able to construct one mentally which shall permanently imitate the originals. Or take another product of human efforts, in which the intention can be executed with tolerable success. When any one builds a house, there are many slight disturbing influences at work, such as shrinking of bricks and mortar, settling of foundations, &c. But the effect which these disturbances are able to produce is so inappreciably small, that we may fairly consider that the result obtained is the direct product of the mind, the accurate realization of its intention. What is the consequence? Every house in the row, if designed by one man and at one time, is of exactly the same height, width, &c.[ TN: space] as its neighbours; or if there are variations they are few, definite, and regular. The result offers no resemblance whatever to the heights, weights, &c.[ TN: space] of a number of men selected at random. The builder probably had some regular design in contemplation, and he has succeeded
§ 15. It may be replied that if we extend our observations, say to the houses of a large city, we shall then detect the property under discussion. The different heights of a great number, when grouped together, might be found to resemble those of a great number of human beings under similar treatment. Something of this kind might not improbably be found to be the case, though the resemblance would be far from being a close one. But to raise this question is to get on to different ground, for we were speaking (as remarked above) not of the work of different minds with their different aims, but of that of one mind. In a multiplicity of designs, there may be that variable uniformity, for which we may look in vain in a single design. The heights which the different builders contemplated might be found to group themselves into something of the same kind of uniformity as that which prevails in most other things which they should undertake to do independently. We might then trace the action of the same two conditions,—a uniformity in the multitude of their different designs, a uniformity also in the infinite variety of the influences which have modified those designs. But this is a very different thing from saying that the work of one man
will show such a result as this. The difference is much like that between the tread of a thousand men who are stepping without thinking of each other, and their tread when they are drilled into a regiment. In the former case there is the working, in one way or another, of a thousand minds; in the latter, of one only.
The investigations of this and the former chapter constitute a sufficiently close examination into the detailed causes by which the peculiar form of statistical results with which we are concerned is actually produced, to serve the purpose of a work which is occupied mainly with the methods of the Science of Probability. The great importance, however, of certain statistical or sociological enquiries will demand a recurrence in a future chapter to one particular application of these statistics, viz.[** TN: space] to those concerned with some classes of human actions.
§ 16. The only important addition to, or modification of, the foregoing remarks which I have found occasion to make is due to Mr Galton. He has recently pointed out,—and was I believe the first to do so,—that in certain cases some analysis of the causal processes can be effected, and is in fact absolutely necessary in order to account for the facts observed. Take, for instance, the heights of the population of any country. If the distribution or dispersion of these about their mean value were left to the unimpeded action of those myriad productive agencies alluded to above, we should certainly obtain such an arrangement in the posterity of any one generation as had already been exhibited in the parents. That is, we should find repeated in the previous stage the same kind of order as we were trying to account for in the following stage.