But then, as Mr Galton insists, if such agencies acted freely and independently, though we should get the same
kind of arrangement or distribution, we should not get the same degree of it: there would, on the contrary, be a tendency towards further dispersion. The ‘curve of facility’ (v. the diagram on p. 29) would belong to the same class, but would have a different modulus. We shall see this at once if we take for comparison a case in which similar agencies work their way without any counteraction whatever. Suppose, for instance, that a large number of persons, whose fortunes were equal to begin with, were to commence gambling or betting continually for some small sum. If we examine their circumstances after successive intervals of time, we should expect to find their fortunes distributed according to the same general law,—i.e.[ TN: space] the now familiar law in question,—but we should also expect to find that the poorest ones were slightly poorer, and the richest ones slightly richer, on each successive occasion. We shall see more about this in a future chapter (on Gambling), but it may be taken for granted here that there is nothing in the laws of chance to resist this tendency towards intensifying the extremes.
Now it is found, on the contrary, in the case of vital phenomena,—for instance in that of height, and presumably of most of the other qualities which are in any way characteristic of natural kinds,—that there is, through a number of successive generations, a remarkable degree of fixity. The tall men are not taller, and the short men are not shorter, per cent.[ TN: space] of the population in successive generations: always supposing of course that some general change of circumstances, such as climate, diet, &c.[ TN: space] has not set in. There must therefore here be some cause at work which tends, so to say, to draw in the extremes and thus to check the otherwise continually increasing dispersion.
§ 17. The facts were first tested by careful experiment.
At the date of Mr Galton's original paper on the subject,[3] there were no available statistics of heights of human beings; so a physical element admitting of careful experiment (viz.[** TN: space] the size or weight of certain seeds) was accurately estimated. From these data the actual amount of reversion from the extremes, that is, of the slight pressure continually put upon the extreme members with the result of crowding them back towards the mean, was determined, and this was compared with what theory would require in order to keep the characteristics of the species permanently fixed. Since then, statistics have been obtained to a large extent which deal directly with the heights of human beings.
The general conclusion at which we arrive is that there are several causes at work which are neither slight nor independent. There is, for instance, the observed fact that the extremes are as a rule not equally fertile with the means, nor equally capable of resisting death and disease. Hence as regards their mere numbers, there is a tendency for them somewhat to thin out. Then again there is a distinct positive cause in respect of ‘reversion.’ Not only are the offspring of the extremes less numerous, but these offspring also tend to cluster about a mean which is, so to say, shifted a little towards the true centre of the whole group; i.e.[** TN: space] towards the mean offspring of the mean parents.
§ 18. For a full discussion of these characteristics, and for a variety of most ingenious illustrations of their mode of agency and of their comparative efficacy, the reader may be referred to Mr Galton's original articles. For our present purpose it will suffice to say that these characteristics tend towards maintaining the fixity of species; and that though they do not affect what may be called the general nature of