CodalSearch this book — or all of Codal…⌘K
nydus/The Logic of Chance, 3rd EditionPublic

This work examines the physical foundations of probability by analyzing the formation and behavior of statistical series. It explores the nature of laws of error, the processes of causation, and the empirical methods required to establish and prove probabilistic data.

Page 41 of 310
Table of Contents

FURTHER DISCUSSION UPON THE NATURE OF THE SERIES MENTIONED IN THE LAST CHAPTER.

be, remain unchanged, and if the variable ones continue in the long run to balance one another, the results will continue to cluster about the same mean. But if the constant ones undergo a gradual change, or if the variable ones, instead of balancing each other suffer one or more of their number to begin to acquire a preponderating influence, so as to put a sort of bias upon their aggregate effect, the mean will at once begin, so to say, to shift its ground. And having once begun to shift, it may continue to do so, to whatever extent we recognize that Species are variable and Development is a fact. It is as if the point on the target at which we aim, instead of being fixed, were slowly changing its position as we continue to fire at it; changing almost certainly to some extent and temporarily, and not improbably to a considerable extent and permanently.

§ 20. Our examples throughout this chapter have been almost exclusively drawn from physical characteristics, whether of man or of inanimate things; but it need not be supposed that we are necessarily confined to such instances. Mr Galton, for instance, has proposed to extend the same principles of calculation to mental phenomena, with a view to their more accurate determination. The objects to be gained by so doing belong rather to the inferential part of our subject, and will be better indicated further on; but they do not involve any distinct principle. Like other attempts

to apply the methods of science in the region of the mind, this proposal has met with some opposition; with very slight reason, as it seems to me. That our mental qualities, if they could be submitted to accurate measurement, would be found to follow the usual Law of Error, may be assumed without much hesitation. The known extent of the correlation of mental and bodily characteristics gives high probability to the supposition that what is proved to prevail, at any rate approximately, amongst most bodily elements which have been submitted to measurement, will prevail also amongst the mental elements.

41