Now take the following. A straight brittle rod is broken at random in two places: find the chance that the pieces can make a triangle.[2] Since the only condition for making a triangle with three straight lines is that each two shall be greater than the third, the problem seems to involve the same general conception as in the former case. We must conceive such rods breaking at one pair of spots after another,—no one can tell precisely where,—but showing the same ultimate tendency to distribute these spots throughout the whole length uniformly. As in the last case, the mathematician thinks of nothing but this final result, and pays no heed to the process by which it may be brought about. Accordingly the problem is again reduced to one of mensuration, though of a somewhat more complicated character.
§ 3. (2) In another class of cases we have to contemplate an intermediate process rather than a final result; but the same conception has to be introduced here, though it is now applied to the former stage, and in consequence will not in general apply to the latter.
For instance: a shot is fired at random from a gun whose maximum range (i.e.[** TN: space] at 45° elevation) is 3000 yards: what is the chance that the actual range shall exceed 2000 yards? The ultimately uniform (or random) distribution here is commonly assumed to apply to the various directions in which the gun can be pointed; all possible directions above
the horizontal being equally represented in the long run. We have therefore to contemplate a surface of uniform distribution, but it will be the surface, not of the ground, but of a hemisphere whose centre is occupied by the man who fires. The ultimate distribution of the bullets on the spots where they strike the ground will not be uniform. The problem is in fact to discover the law of variation of the density of distribution.
The above is, I presume, the treatment generally adopted in solving such a problem. But there seems no absolute necessity for any such particular choice. It is surely open to any one to maintain[3] that his conception of the randomness of the firing is assigned by saying that it is likely that a man should begin by facing towards any point of the compass indifferently, and then proceed to raise his gun to any angle indifferently. The stage of ultimately uniform distribution here has receded a step further back. It is not assigned directly to the surface of an imaginary hemisphere, but to the lines of altitude and azimuth drawn on that surface. Accordingly, the distribution over the hemisphere itself will not now be uniform,—there will be a comparative crowding up towards the pole,—and the ultimate distribution over the ground will not be the same as before.
§ 4. Difficulties of this kind, arising out of the uncertainty as to what stage should be selected for that of uniform distribution, will occasionally present themselves. For instance: let a book be taken at random out of a bookcase; what is the chance of hitting upon some assigned volume? I hardly know how this question would commonly be treated. If we were to set our man opposite the middle of the shelf
and inquire what would generally happen in practice, supposing him blindfolded, there cannot be much doubt that the volumes would not be selected equally often. On the contrary, it is likely that there would be a tendency to increased frequency about a centre indicated by the height of his shoulder, and (unless he be left-handed) a trifle to the right of the point exactly opposite his starting point.
If the question were one which it were really worth while to work out on these lines we should be led a long way back. Just as we imagined our rifleman's position (on the second supposition) to be determined by two