(2) In the other form of reply the explanation of the phrase in question would be sought, not in a state of mind, but in a quality of the things contemplated. We might assign the following as the meaning, viz.[** TN: space] that the events really would occur with equal frequency in the long run. The ground of this assertion would probably be found in past experience, and it would doubtless be impossible so to frame the answer as to exclude the notion of our belief altogether. But still there is a broad distinction between seeking an equality in the amount of our belief, as before, and in the frequency of occurrence of the events themselves, as here.
§ 4. When we have got as far as this it can readily be shown that an appeal to experience cannot be long evaded. For can the assertion in question (viz.[ TN: space] that the throws of the penny will occur equally often) be safely made à priori? Those who consider that it can seem hardly to have fully faced the difficulties which meet them. For when we begin to enquire seriously whether the penny will really do what is expected of it, we find that restrictions have to be introduced. In the first place it must be an ideal coin, with its sides equal and fair. This restriction is perfectly intelligible; the study of solid geometry enables us to idealize a penny into a circular or cylindrical lamina. But this condition
by itself is not sufficient, others are wanted as well. The penny was supposed to be tossed up, as we say ‘at random.’ What is meant by this, and how is this process to be idealized? To ask this is to introduce no idle subtlety; for it would scarcely be maintained that the heads and tails would get their fair chances if, immediately before the throwing, we were so to place the coin in our hands as to start it always with the same side upwards. The difference that would result in consequence, slight as its cause is, would tend in time to show itself in the results. Or, if we persisted in starting with each of the two sides alternately upwards, would the longer repetitions of the same side get their fair chance?
Perhaps it will be replied that if we think nothing whatever about these matters all will come right of its own accord. It may, and doubtless will be so, but this is falling back upon experience. It is here, then, that we find ourselves resting on the experimental assumption above mentioned, and which indeed cannot be avoided. For suppose, lastly, that the circumstances of nature, or my bodily or mental constitution, were such that the same side always is started upwards, or indeed that they are started in any arbitrary order of our own? Well, it will be replied, it would not then be a fair trial. If we press in this way for an answer to such enquiries, we shall find that these tacit restrictions are really nothing else than a mode of securing an experimental result. They are only another way of saying, Let a series of actions be performed in such a way as to secure a sequence of a particular kind, viz., of the kind described in the previous chapters.
§ 5. An intermediate way of evading the direct appeal to experience is sometimes found by defining the probability of an event as being measured by the ratio which the
number of cases favourable to the event bears to the total number of cases which are possible. This seems a somewhat loose and ambiguous way of speaking. It is clearly not enough to count the number of cases merely, they must also be valued, since it is not certain that each is equally potent in producing the effect. This, of course, would never be denied, but sufficient importance does not seem to be attached to the fact that we have really no other way of valuing them except by estimating the effects which they actually do, or would produce. Instead of thus appealing to the proportion of cases favourable to the event, it is far better (at least as regards the foundation of the science, for we are not at this moment discussing the practical method of facilitating our calculations) to appeal at once to the proportion of cases in which the event actually occurs.