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nydus/The Logic of Chance, 3rd EditionPublic

This work examines the physical foundations of probability by analyzing the formation and behavior of statistical series. It explores the nature of laws of error, the processes of causation, and the empirical methods required to establish and prove probabilistic data.

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Table of Contents

ON THE CREDIBILITY OF EXTRAORDINARY STORIES.

out of which it arises is modern. But it is only one instance, out of many that might be mentioned, in which the growth of some philosophical conception has gradually affected the nature of the dispute, and at last shifted the position of the battle-ground, in some discussion with which it might not at first have appeared to have any connection whatever.

§ 23. So far our path is plain. Up to this point disciples of very different schools may advance together; for in laying down the above doctrine we have carefully abstained from implying or admitting that it contains the whole truth. But from this point two paths branch out before us, paths as

different from each other in their character, origin, and direction, as can well be conceived. As this enquiry is only a digression, we may confine ourselves to stating briefly what seem to be the characteristics of each, without attempting to give the arguments which might be used in their support.

(I.) On the one hand, we may assume that this principle of causation is the ultimate one. By so terming it, we do not mean that it is one from which we consciously start in our investigations, as we do from the axioms of geometry, but rather that it is the final result towards which we find ourselves drawn by a study of nature. Finding that, throughout the scope of our enquiries, event follows event in never-failing uniformity, and finding moreover (some might add) that this experience is supported or even demanded by a tendency or law of our nature (it does not matter here how we describe it), we may come to regard this as the one fundamental principle on which all our enquiries should rest.

(II.) Or, on the other hand, we may admit a class of principles of a very different kind. Allowing that there is this uniformity so far as our experience extends, we may yet admit what can hardly be otherwise described than by calling it a Superintending Providence, that is, a Scheme or Order, in reference to which Design may be predicated without using merely metaphorical language. To adopt an aptly chosen distinction, it is not to be understood as over-ruling events, but rather as underlying them.

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