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nydus/The Logic of Chance, 3rd EditionPublic

This work examines the physical foundations of probability by analyzing the formation and behavior of statistical series. It explores the nature of laws of error, the processes of causation, and the empirical methods required to establish and prove probabilistic data.

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Table of Contents

ON CERTAIN CONSEQUENCES OF THE OBJECTIVE TREATMENT OF A SCIENCE OF INFERENCE. [*]

* In the previous edition a large part of this chapter was devoted to the general consideration of the distinction between a Material and a Conceptualist view of Logic. I have omitted most of this here, as also a large part of a chapter devoted to the detailed discussion of the Law of Causation, as I hope before very long to express my opinions on these subjects more fully, and more appropriately, in a treatise on the general principles of Inductive Logic.

§ 1. Students of Logic are familiar with that broad distinction between the two methods of treatment to which the names of Material and Conceptualist may be applied. The distinction was one which had been gradually growing up under other names before it was emphasized, and treated as a distinction within the field of Logic proper, by the publication of Mill's well known work. No one, for instance, can read Whewell's treatises on Induction, or Herschel's Discourse, without seeing that they are treating of much the same subject-matter, and regarding it in much the same way, as that which Mill discussed under the name of Logic, though they were not disposed to give it that name. That is, these writers throughout took it for granted that what they had to do was to systematise the facts of nature in their objective form, and under their widest possible treatment, and to expound the principal modes of inference and the principal practical aids in the investigation of these

modes of inference, which reason could suggest and which experience could justify. What Mill did was to bring these methods into close relation with such portions of the old scholastic Logic as he felt able to retain, to work them out into much fuller detail, to systematize them by giving them a certain philosophical and psychological foundation,—and to entitle the result Logic.

The practical treatment of a science will seldom correspond closely to the ideal which its supporters propose to themselves, and still seldomer to that which its antagonists insist upon demanding from the supporters. If we were to take our account of the distinction between the two views of Logic expounded respectively by Hamilton and by Mill, from Mill and Hamilton respectively, we should certainly not find it easy to bring them under one common definition. By such a test, the material Logic would be regarded as nothing more than a somewhat arbitrary selection from the domain of Physical Science in general, and the conceptualist Logic nothing more than a somewhat arbitrary selection from the domain of Psychology. The former would omit all consideration of the laws of thought and the latter all consideration of the truth or falsehood of our conclusions.

Of course, in practice, such extremes as these are soon seen to be avoidable, and in spite of all controversial exaggerations the expounders of the opposite views do contrive to retain a large area of speculation in common. I do not propose here to examine in detail the restrictions by which this accommodation is brought about, or the very real and important distinctions of method, aim, tests, and limits which in spite of all approach to agreement are still found to subsist. To attempt this would be to open up rather too wide an enquiry to be suitable in a treatise on one subdivision only of the general science of Inference.

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