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nydus/The Logic of Chance, 3rd EditionPublic

This work examines the physical foundations of probability by analyzing the formation and behavior of statistical series. It explores the nature of laws of error, the processes of causation, and the empirical methods required to establish and prove probabilistic data.

Page 242 of 310
Table of Contents

INSURANCE AND GAMBLING.

what is commonly called Fechner's Law, which he has established by aid of an enormous amount of careful experiment in the case of a number of our simple sensations. But I do not believe that he has made any claim that such a law holds good in the far more intricate dependence of happiness upon wealth.

10 The formula expressive of this moral happiness is c log x/a; where x stands for the physical fortune possessed at the time, and a for that small value of it at which happiness is supposed to disappear: c being an arbitrary constant. Let two persons, whose fortune is x, risk y on an even bet. Then the balance, as regards happiness, must be drawn between

or log x2 and log(x + y)(x − y),

or x2 and x2 − y2, the former of which is necessarily the greater.

11 This may be seen more clearly as follows. Suppose two pair of gamblers, each pair consisting of men possessing £50 and £30 respectively. Now if we suppose the richer man to win in one case and the poorer in the other these two results will be a fair representation of the average; for there are only two alternatives and these will be equally frequent in the long run. It is obvious that we have had two fortunes of £50 and two of £30 converted into one of £20, two of £40, and one of £60. And this is clearly an increase of inequality.

CHAPTER XVI.

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