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nydus/The Logic of Chance, 3rd EditionPublic

This work examines the physical foundations of probability by analyzing the formation and behavior of statistical series. It explores the nature of laws of error, the processes of causation, and the empirical methods required to establish and prove probabilistic data.

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Table of Contents

FURTHER DISCUSSION UPON THE NATURE OF THE SERIES MENTIONED IN THE LAST CHAPTER.

Superposition of two Gaussians

§ 16. In the above case the nature of the heterogeneity, and the reasons why the statistics should be so collected and arranged as to avoid it, seemed tolerably obvious. It will be seen still more plainly if we take a parallel case drawn from artificial proceedings. Suppose that after a man had fired a few thousand shots at a certain spot, say a wafer fixed somewhere on a wall, the position of the spot at which he aims were shifted, and he fired a few thousand more shots at the wafer in its new position. Now let us collect and arrange all the shots of both series in the order of their departure from either of the centres, say the new one. Here we should really be mingling together two discordant sets of elements, either of which, if kept apart from the other, would have been of a simple and homogeneous character. We should find, in consequence, that the resultant law of error betrayed its composite or heterogeneous origin by a glaring departure from the customary form, somewhat after the fashion indicated in the above diagram.

The instance of the English and French heights resembles the one just given, but falls far short of it in the stringency with which the requisite conditions are secured. The fact is we have not here got the most suitable requirements, viz.[** TN: space] a group consisting of a few fixed causes supplemented by innumerable little disturbing influences. What we call a nation is really a highly artificial body, the members of

which are subject to a considerable number of local or occasional disturbing causes. Amongst Frenchmen were included, presumably, Bretons, Provençals, Alsatians, and so on, thus commingling distinctions which, though less than those between French and English, regarded as wholes, are very far from being insignificant. And to these differences of race must be added other disturbances, also highly important, dependent upon varying climate, food and occupation. It is plain, therefore, that whatever objections exist against confusing together French and English statistics, exist also, though of course in a less degree, against confusing together those of the various provincial and other components which make up the French people.

§ 17. Out of the great variety of important causes which influence the height of men, it is probable that those which most nearly fulfil the main conditions required by the ‘Law of Error’ are those about which we know the least. Upon the effects of food and employment, observation has something to say, but upon the purely physiological causes by which the height of the parents influences the height of the offspring, we have probably nothing which deserves to be called knowledge. Perhaps the best supposition we can make is one which, in accordance with the saying that ‘like breeds like’, would assume that the purely physiological causes represent the constant element; that is, given a homogeneous race of people to begin with, who freely intermarry, and are subject to like circumstances of climate, food, and occupation, the standard would remain on the whole constant.[15] In such a case the man who possessed the mean height, mean weight, mean strength, and so on, might then be called, in a sort of way, a ‘type’. The deviations from this type would then be produced by innumerable small influences, partly physiological, partly physical and social, acting for the most part independently of one

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